What's causing the changes.
1. Better than ever
Things are better than ever:
But abundance brings new problems, like complexity, information overload, “stuffocation”, and busyness.
“Busyness is… frenetic, always alert, multitasking… always on, glancing regularly at our phones… juggling,
cramming, and rushing.” — Tony Crabbe, author, Busy
2. Exceptional expectations
“There’s better on-shelf availability than ever before but people think it’s getting worse.” — Darren Smillie, customer supply chain insight manager, IGD
More than 1.5m people go to live in cities every week.
4. Technological times
“The pace of technological change [is] making heads spin” — The Economist
For more on this, read the section on the pace of change in our essay Why You Need a Futurist.
5. The age of experiments
We’re working out how to live, how to…
6. We're still flesh and blood…
We’re trying things and tech is more important than ever, but we're still human, with human habits.
"Human minds are the product of evolution, shaped by millions of years of natural selection.” — Jason Collins, blogger, Evolving Economics
“Grocery retail is now judged by convenience that's measured in delivery times of hours and even minutes, and to your door. That dramatically changes what grocery shopping even means, and reshapes the meaning of what a shop is for.” — Ed White, senior editor, IDEO
Simple rules: the rise of the discounters
The discounters have created a new normal, where simplicity rules.
Click and collect rising
In a connected world, we want to click anywhere and have food delivered to… home, car boots, lockers, mobile pick-up centres, and drive-thru outlets.
There are now 500,000 click and collect locations in Europe in 2015 — that's a 20% increase from 2014 (source: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu)
“Click and collect… is a win-win solution for consumers and a least-worst solution for retailers.” — Chris Summerscales, head of retail consultancy, CBRE
Quicker than clicking
“Online grocery typically attracts the most profitable customers: dual-income households, customers who prioritize convenience over price or promotions, big-spending customers — these are the type of customers you’ll be making more loyal” — Christian Wanner, founder, LeShop.ch
We’re all omnishoppers now.
“Grocers can cultivate greater shopper loyalty by encouraging cross-channel shopping: we think consumers are more likely to stick with those who are providing an integrated mix of supermarkets, online and c-stores that caters to different shopping missions.” — John Mercer, European retail analyst, Mintel
“Self-scanning has been trialled since the 1980s without ever working satisfactorily – at great irritation to consumers. Scanning from mobiles will
eventually result in a reduction in the need for till staff.” — Mark Teale, ex-CBRE and Retail Think Tank
The 3 Ts: transparency, traceability, trust
“Transparency and traceability are going to be even more important as consumers value provenance above everything” — Mandy Saven, head of food, beverage & hospitality, Stylus
“In the near future, we will be able to discover everything there is to know about the apple we are looking at: the tree it grew on, the CO2 it produced, the chemical treatments it received, and its journey to the supermarket shelf.” Carlo Ratti, professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, creator of Coop Italia’s store of the future, Milan, 2015
“For now, retailers get store level data and share that with suppliers. The next level will be understanding demand at the individual shopper level… and then taking that extra level of data, sharing it in real time, to be more responsive, better at forecasting, and even anticipating demand.” — Darren Smillie, customer supply chain insight manager, IGD
Or, "Cognitive commerce"
The internet of things will know what your customers want before they know.
“With the internet of things and cognitive technology, more of our gadgets will intuitively know when they need filling up, when things are out of date, when we need deliveries.” — Lucie Greene, worldwide director of trends, JWT Intelligence
The internet of things also means supply chain managers can plan effectively, get a greater insight into consumers’ preferences and offer a better service.
The future store
“As stores get smaller and rents get higher there's a huge focus on maximising revenues throughout the day rather than just at peak times.” — Jim Whyte, senior insights analyst, Fitch
“There is a separation in grocery now between routine and interesting.” — Leigh Sparks, professor, Institute for Retail Studies, University of Stirling
Future store 1: "more than a store"
As seen in…
Note: the concept of offering more than just things for sale is far from new. It is just we're seeing a wave of this right now. When The Future Is Here's founder, James Wallman, advised BMW on the future of retail in 2007, one of the key trends was "More than a store".
Future store 2: “edutainment” store
Note that 50% of men, 70% of women worldwide now consider shopping a form of entertainment, and that 32% of millennials expect brands to host some kind of entertainment (source: a strategy agency based in Oregon called Fiction)
Future store 3: store as producer
“Manufacturers want retailers to do more of the assembly and finishing. It’s about moving manufacturing closer to consumption: perhaps the retailer will mix ingredients or add water… or even get the customer to do some customisation.” — Jaideep Prabhu, co-author, Frugal Innovation
“Right now, there’s a lot of innovation in food-tech: delivery of food from restaurants and dark kitchens to consumers” — Arvind Singhal, CEO, Technopak
In the US, venture capitalists are pouring money into serivces like Munchery, Blue Apron and Plated
Future store 4: hub store
“Stores will serve as a small distribution centres” — John Fernie, emeritus professor of retail marketing, Heriot-Watt University
“Think about leveraging the sharing economy and peer-topeer dynamics to create a free exchange area where everyone can be both a producer and a consumer – almost an Airbnb of home-made products” — Giovanni de Niederhausern, COO, Carlo Ratti Associati
This is a brief, edited version of a presentation given to one of the world's largest food retailers. Get in touch to find out more.