A quick word on what forecasts are, and what they are not. We all make assumptions about the future every day. If we did not, how could we do our weekly shop, arrange to meet someone, or know what time to turn up at the airport? Meal plans, departure times, and meeting arrangements are, if you think about it, nothing more than statements about the future. They are predictions of what you are going to eat, when your plane will take off, and when your friend will arrive.
So we should not, in truth, expect forecasts to be perfectly accurate – or friends and planes to always be on time. Instead of thinking of forecasts as facts, we should put them in the same category as timetables, plans, models, and maps. A good forecast, like a well-constructed model or an accurate roadmap, should provide us with enough information about the future so that we are able to plan. It may not mention every detail – every sight or traffic jam or bump in the road – but it will tell us when to turn left or right, it will give us ideas on how to get to our destination, and it will sketch out what it will look like when we get there.
You could say that The Future is Already Here is in the business of providing inspiring, useful, actionable roadmaps to the future.